Mortgage Rates Aren’t Backing Down Yet

Mortgage rates could hover around 7% through year-end, keeping affordability pressured unless inflation cools enough to change the Fed’s trajectory.
Sticky inflation and another potential Fed hike could push mortgage costs higher, while wider MBS spreads add further pressure to borrowing rates.
A meaningful rate drop would need sustained inflation progress, calmer long-term yields, supportive Fed signals, and healthier mortgage-backed securities spreads.
For buyers, investors, and refinancers, today’s rates should remain the planning baseline, while future rate relief should be treated as potential upside.